Are Some Banks Too Small to Survive?

With increasing regulatory capital requirements, declining interest margins, a greater need for investment in innovation and new competition, there are many in the industry who believe that smaller banks may have limited opportunity for growth in the future. 

These pressures may lead to an acceleration of consolidation in the banking industry that impacts both small and mid-tier banks and results in a significantly reduced number of institutions in the future.

While attending both the BAI Payments Connect and CBA Live conferences in Phoenix last month, discussions often revolved around the heavy financial and organizational impact of new capital requirements and of regulatory compliance being faced by institutions of all sizes. It was also clear that the investment in advanced technology and the pace of innovation was creating a distinction between the 'haves' and the 'have nots'. While there were some exceptions, this line of demarcation appeared to be defined by the size of organization.

The question I asked several industry thought leaders over the past couple weeks is whether smaller banks are in a position to survive given the massive industry changes on the horizon. While their responses varied regarding the chances of survival for today's community bank (and smaller credit union), there was unanimity in their belief that smaller institutions must quickly adjust to the 'new reality' of increased capital requirements and regulatory pressures, a greater focus on revenue, and a need to innovate for an enhanced customer experience.

"The thing that keeps me up at night is that we will likely see an industry contraction in the next decade like we never experienced", states Bradley Leimer, vice president of the $3.2 billion asset Mechanics Bank in California. We are moving from over 14,000 financial institutions today to less than 5,000 in the next 10 years (maybe sooner). This is due to the changing nature of consumer behavior with the introduction of mobile and social and technological innovation, but also due to systematic changes to the banking model itself."

Also supporting my informal findings, Emily McCormick, director of research and writer for Bank Director, interviewed the risk officer of an $8 billion bank holding company for Bank Director's 2013 Risk Practices Survey. He told her that, while he found a lot of positives in the regulations coming out of Washington, this could be a challenge for smaller banks that lack the resources and staffing to keep up.

McCormick also believes there's a technology challenge, "Internally, smaller banks need the right resources to do things like manage risk, but they also need the resources to compete. While smaller banks have the significant benefit of connections within their local business communities - giving these banks a potential advantage in business lending - customer expectations for services like mobile and online banking will continue to rise."

DDA Under Siege

As part of the planning committee for this year's BAI PaymentsConnect 2011, I would love to take credit for the great title of this program track, but I am not sure even the great minds at the BAI could have foreseen how apropos "DDA Under Siege" would be for bankers attending this year's conference that wraped up today in Phoenix.

If there was a unifying theme from the many sessions I participated in this week, it was that revenue lost from last year's Reg. E and this year's Durbin amendment can not be completely recaptured through repricing. Instead there needs to be a stronger focus on targeted customer acquisition, share of wallet growth strategies, retention, product innovation and cost containment. While everyone at the event seemed to be interested in what others were going to do around checking repricing, the energy was definitely focused on building a stronger platform for the future.

PNC Uses Social Media to Support Reg E Efforts

It appears PNC Bank is leveraging all available channels in their effort to capture as many opt-ins as possible. Today, I received a Tweet from PNC Virtual Wallet offering a description of the difference between overdraft protection and overdraft coverage. The message directed me to my Inside the Wallet Blog within the Virtual Wallet online banking site.

On the Blog, PNC innovation and Virtual Wallet leader Michael Ley, describes the options a customer has as to whether to opt-in or not with his post, "To “Opt In” or not “Opt In”… What is the Question?". Illustrations are used to help describe the options a customer has.

Interchange Amendment Could Change Reward Programs

As if we haven't seen enough regulatory changes over the past 12 months with the Card Act and Reg E, now there is the possibility that Washington will limit interchange fees for debit transactions.

As noted in a recent Client Briefing from Celent Research, part of the proposed legislation requires the Fed to determine a “reasonable and proportional” interchange fee, which is no easy task given that interchange fees are there to balance the incentives in the payment system and tend to cover such difficult-to-quantify items as the payment guarantee and convenience.

In other words, the government can't look at just the operational and fraud prevention costs. In addition, current interchange fees differ by sector and are not standardized currently.

What Banking Needs to Become

In this quarter's Strategy + Business Magazine, Vanessa Wallace and Andrew Herrick discuss the significant changes in the banking industry over the past few years and how bank's business models, capabilities and practices must change as well. In their very good article, they emphasize that the purpose of banking and the needs of the customer have remained relatively consistent with regards to safe havens for savings and consistent access to credit for investment.

The environment has changed, however, with the competitive landscape changing, the regulations increasing and the public trust eroding. In addition, the times of high growth have ended.